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A (2007) GDP Restatement & A Bumpy Future.

Back in 2007 we reported on how China restated its 2006 GDP figures [1], and suggested that statistics be treated with caution. Now Xinhua has just reported [2]another revision, this time for the 2007 GDP figure:

China is working hard to keep things running on target. Further to the announcement of the massive stimulus package [5], The Wall Street Journal [6] notes Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent announcement that:

China is also updating plans for its traditional, southern industrial base, as reported by AP [7]:

More news on more initiatives can be expected. But it remains to be seen how the economy will land. It seems a long time ago (April 2007) that Standard Chartered reported [8] “This economy has not landed – it has refuelled in mid-flight and is flying higher again”.

But these days it is William Overholt’s 1990’s comment [9] springs to mind again…that China would not have a hard or a soft landing, but would most likely have a bumpy one.

Even that evaluation may now seem optimistic to some. Hang on!