Recently the Sizzling Summer Stats and June trade figures were already causing concern. Now new figures on GDP, investment and inflation show that there is still plenty of heat in the economy (but also some welcome domestic demand). Figures reported in People’s Daily include:
• GDP: Up 11.5% in the first half of the year (and 11.9% in the second quarter).
• Retail sales: Up 15.4% in the first half of the year (“2.1 percentage points more than the rise in the same period last year”)
• Fixed asset investments: Up 25.9% in the first half of the year (“down 3.9 percentage points” on the same period last year)
• CPI: The consumer price index was up 3.2% in the first half (though without foodstuff and energy prices the rise was just 0.9%) and 4.4% in June
The FT notes that:
“the first-half data is likely to add to expectations of further economic tightening such as more increases in interest rates and bank reserve requirements.
The 11.9 per cent GDP growth – up from 11.1 per cent in the first quarter – is far higher than the eight per cent government target and above levels that some economists consider sustainable.”
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