Another Year, Another 10 Percent

Related entries: Economy, General, News

Xu Yifan, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), has “predicted” (maybe he has already drafted the report?!) that China’s GDP growth will be 10 percent this year (following 10.2 percent in 2005, and 10.9 percent in the first six months of 2006). China Daily reports:

    • “NBS statistics show the growth rate of fixed assets investment,a major indicator of economic growth, dropped 5.9 percentage points over previous month to 21.5 percent in August.”

    • “Chinese banks lent 177 billion yuan (22.4 billion U.S. dollars) on average per month in July and August, half of the average monthly new loans in the first six months.”

Xu is reported as saying that there are still risks of overheating, and from too much fixed-asset investment. In any event, estimates have been going up and down recently. I reported earlier (in August – see here) that:

    • The World Bank has revised its estimate for China’s 2006 growth up to 10.4 percent from 9.5 percent.

    • The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s estimate is for around 10.2 percent growth overall (up from an earlier estimate of 9.9 percent, and against a target of 8 percent).

So, at around 10 percent there seems to be some sort of consensus.

See news source:

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