Economic Estimates for 2007

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While the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) thinks that GDP growth for 2006 will be 10.6 percent, it is also predicting a slowdown in the fourth quarter. The economic tightening measures of the government over the past few months may be paying off – if the latest reports from Xinhua are anything to go by:

    “China’s economy will most possibly keep a moderate growth of 9.5 percent in 2007, with the fixed asset investment up 20 percent over 2006, the latest report by the State Information Center (SIC) has predicted.”

The report notes additional estimates:

    • Fixed asset investment: estimated at RMB13.45 trillion (US$1.68 trillion) in 2007, up 20 percent

    • Retail sales: estimated at RMB8.59 trillion in 2007, up 12.5 percent

    • Exports: estimated to rise by 15 percent in 2007

    • Trade surplus: estimated to hit US$177 billion (though another report quoting the SIC notes US$150 billion)

A soft landing perhaps but, as someone mentioned the other day, it is a brave economist who makes estimates AND ties them to a date. So keep an open mind.

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One Response to “Economic Estimates for 2007”

  1. Archive » Trade Surplus Means More RMB Pressure| China Business Blog Says:

    […] na’s trade surplus in 2006 was probably up 74 percent to US$177 billion – in line with earlier estimates from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The pressure on […]

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