Economic Indicators: GDP Slowing (Up)

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China’s GDP is expected to grow around 9.6 percent, year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2006, with growth of 8.9 percent estimated for the year as a whole (against the government plan for 8 percent), according to reports. GDP growth was 9.9 percent in 2005, and 10.1 percent in 2004.

Other economic indicators out recently include:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): Estimated to rise by 2 percent this year, against 1.8 percent growth in 2005.
• Retail Sales: Up 12.5 percent, year-on-year, to RMB1.26 trillion in the first 2 months of the year.
• Industrial Output: Up 16.2 percent in the first 2 months, year-on-year, driven (if you’ll forgive the pun) by production of cars and trucks.
• Trade: Exports were up 22.3 percent, year-on-year, in February (at US$54.15 billion). Imports were up 29.6 percent (at US$51.7 billion). The surplus was down to US$4.62 billion, from US$9.49 billion a year ago.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Up 7.8 percent (to US$8.6 billion) in the first 2 months, compared with the same period last year.

It will be interesting to see how the GDP projections turn out given strong growth in several areas, especially bearing in mind the wholesale revisions to historical figures that were issued last year.

See news sources:

China forecasting slower GDP growth
International Herald Tribune – France
SHANGHAI China’s economy is expected to grow 8.9 percent in 2006, slowing from 9.9 percent last year, the central bank’s research department said in a report …

China’s economy showing signs of slowing down – NDRC
Forbes – USA
… National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning body, said in a report published in the official China Securities Journal …

China Jan-Feb retail sales up 12.5 pct yr-on-yr – NBS – UPDATE
Forbes – USA
BEIJING (AFX) – For the months of January and February retail sales in China rose 12.5 pct from a year earlier to 1.26 trln yuan, the National Bureau of …

China factory output rises on local demand
International Herald Tribune – France
BEIJING China’s industrial output in the first two months of the year rose 16.2 percent from a year earlier as factories produced more cars and trucks, the …

China Feb trade surplus at 2.45 bln usd – UPDATE
Forbes – USA
BEIJING (AFX) – China said it recorded a trade surplus of 2.45 bln usd in February as exports and imports continued to grow strongly despite the impact of the …
Investment into China records 8 % rise
People’s Daily Online – Beijing,China
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China in the first two months of this year grew by nearly 8 per cent from a year ago, the Ministry of Commerce said …

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