The GDP Guessing Game

Related entries: Economy, General, Research

Who knows what is going to happen with China’s GDP growth? Nobody! But there are lots of people willing to hazard a guess (based on in-depth statistical analysis, sincere hope, and a variety of other methods). Some of the most recently reported guesstimates for 2007 include, in ascending order:

    • Premier Wen Jiabao: 8% (an official target rather than an estimate)

    • Development Research Centre of the State Council: 9% (and 7-8% for the next 10 years)

    • Standard Chartered Bank: 9.7%

    • Goldman Sachs: 9.8%

    • People’s Bank of China: 10%

    • Asian Development Bank: 10% (and 9.8% 2008)

While the range is significant, it is clear that growth will continue to be rapid – but perhaps not as rapid as in the first quarter – in which period the State Information Center has estimated growth of 11%, driven by exports and domestic demand.

In any event, the predictions do not often match the reality (which may itself be revised from time to time). As China Daily points out:

    “Though the country set the GDP growth rate target at seven percent in 2004, and eight percent in 2005 and 2006, the actual rates were 10.1 percent, 10.4 percent and 10.7 percent respectively.”

The usual statistical warnings apply!

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One Response to “The GDP Guessing Game”

  1. Archive » Sizzling Summer Stats| China Business Blog Says:

    […] .3 percent. This is well ahead of the government target of 8 percent, and also creeps past earlier estimates, from various sources, that were reported in April at between 9 and 10 percen […]

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