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The GDP Guessing Game

Who knows what is going to happen with China’s GDP growth? Nobody! But there are lots of people willing to hazard a guess (based on in-depth statistical analysis, sincere hope, and a variety of other methods). Some of the most recently reported guesstimates for 2007 include, in ascending order:

While the range is significant, it is clear that growth will continue to be rapid – but perhaps not as rapid as in the first quarter – in which period the State Information Center has estimated growth of 11%, driven by exports and domestic demand.

In any event, the predictions do not often match the reality (which may itself be revised from time to time [1]). As China Daily points out:

The usual statistical warnings apply!

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