Updated Economic Estimates for 2007

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China’s trade surplus is a frequently quoted figure, but it is only one of the fast-moving economic indicators coming out of China. The latest batch of stats shows no sign of a slow down. The following reports come from Forbes, and are from a source at the National Development and Reform Commission (“NDRC”):

    • GDP: Projected at 11.5% for 2007 and 11% in 2008 (well ahead of government and private sector estimates made in April)

    • Inflation (CPI): Projected at 4.3% for 2007 and 3.5% in 2008 (The National Bureau of Statistics predicts 4.5% for 2007, and the People’s Bank of China 4.6%, according to another report)

    • Industrial value-added output: Projected at 18% for 2007

    • Urban fixed-asset investment: Projected at 29% for 2007, and 25% in 2008

    • Retail sales: Projected at 16.2% in 2007, and 16.5% in 2008

    • Exports: Projected at 24.3% in 2007, with slower growth in 2008.

    • Trade surplus: Projected to hit US$257 billion in 2007, and US$308.4 billion in 2008.

Bloomberg reports that growth in the third quarter was already 11.5%, and that it is likely the central bank will raise interest rates again in an effort to curb the stock market and inflation. Policy actions and strong warnings have done little to slow things down so far, and one assumes that NDRC (whose original estimates for 2007 are now way off the mark) must be getting worried. Will another interest rate rise do it? Will harder (and more coordinated) action be taken by the central government? Or will the market drive events?

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2 Responses to “Updated Economic Estimates for 2007”

  1. Top China Suppliers : Blog Archive : Updated Economic Estimates for 2007 Says:

    […] blished: October 25 2007 04:29 | Last updated: October 25 2007 22:37 Read Original Post Here […]

  2. Archive » GDP In 2007 (And 2008 Projections)| China Business Blog Says:

    […] ureau of Statistics (and reported by AFP). The rate of growth was ahead of the target (but close to recent estimates), and came together with (mainly food-driven) inflation at an 11-year […]

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