China’s trade surplus is a frequently quoted figure, but it is only one of the fast-moving economic indicators coming out of China. The latest batch of stats shows no sign of a slow down. The following reports come from Forbes, and are from a source at the National Development and Reform Commission (“NDRC”):

• GDP: Projected at 11.5% for 2007 and 11% in 2008 (well ahead of government and private sector estimates made in April)

• Inflation (CPI): Projected at 4.3% for 2007 and 3.5% in 2008 (The National Bureau of Statistics predicts 4.5% for 2007, and the People’s Bank of China 4.6%, according to another report)

• Industrial value-added output: Projected at 18% for 2007

• Urban fixed-asset investment: Projected at 29% for 2007, and 25% in 2008

• Retail sales: Projected at 16.2% in 2007, and 16.5% in 2008

• Exports: Projected at 24.3% in 2007, with slower growth in 2008.

• Trade surplus: Projected to hit US$257 billion in 2007, and US$308.4 billion in 2008.

Bloomberg reports that growth in the third quarter was already 11.5%, and that it is likely the central bank will raise interest rates again in an effort to curb the stock market and inflation. Policy actions and strong warnings have done little to slow things down so far, and one assumes that NDRC (whose original estimates for 2007 are now way off the mark) must be getting worried. Will another interest rate rise do it? Will harder (and more coordinated) action be taken by the central government? Or will the market drive events?

See news sources:

China 2007 CPI growth seen at 4.3 pct, GDP 11.5 pct – NDRC …
Forbes – NY,USA
In a research report published on the official China Securities Journal, Wang, an economist with the state planning agency, said GDP is likely to grow …

China Will Probably Raise Rates After 11.5% Expansion (Update1)
Bloomberg – USA
By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Patricia Chua Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) — China’s central bank will probably increase borrowing costs for the sixth time this year to …

China 2007 inflation seen at 4.5 pct – govt economist
Forbes – NY,USA
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) – China’s consumer price inflation is seen at 4.5 pct this year, the statistics agency’s chief economist said in comments made to the …

China says industrial output up 18.9 percent in September
International Herald Tribune – France
AP BEIJING: The growth of China’s industrial production speeded up in September even as its rapid economic expansion slowed slightly, according to data …

China’s economic boom goes on
By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: October 25 2007 04:29 | Last updated: October 25 2007 22:37

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